Lies, Damned Lies, and UNAIDS Statistics

April 16, 2013

16 Apr (SOUTH AFRICA) – Report by South Africa for 2010 cites about 18,000 dead from “HIV-AIDS.”  UNAIDS claim of 270,000 “HIV-AIDS” deaths in country remains unexplainable.                                                             by Terry Michael  

South Africa has just released its latest mortality figures, for 2010, showing a continued decline in all deaths annually since 2006, while population continues to rise rapidly. From 2001 to 2011 the nation’s population grew 15%, to 51.8 million. Statistics South Africa attributed 18,325 deaths to “HIV disease” in 2010, about 3% of the 543,856 total deaths. The official statistics contrast sharply with numbers from UNAIDS, which continues to assert that hundreds of thousands die annually (270,000 in 2011, UNAIDS claims) in South Africa from “HIV disease.” The UNAIDS HIV death number is seventeen times that reported from actual government death registrations. The figures suggest that the UNAIDS’ claim that 34 million are “living with HIV-AIDS” worldwide is also an exaggeration of major proportion, based on factually unsupportable mathematical modeling. The U.N. public relations organization also claims, with nothing approaching actual counts, that two-thirds of “HIV-AIDS cases” are in Sub Saharan Africa.  

Terry Michael


Statistics South Africa (SSA), the official keeper of health, death, population, and commerce data, released a report in April on mortality for the year 2010, based on death registrations, or what some countries call “death certificates.” SSA revealed that total deaths, 543,856, were again down, in a country where population had increased by 15% in the past decade, and “HIV disease” deaths remained at no more than 3% of all fatalities in the country of 51.8 million.  

As they have for years, SSA’s numbers reflect a huge and unexplainable difference in South African “HIV disease” deaths when contrasted with crude estimates from UNAIDS, the United Nations interagency office created to promote “AIDS awareness” and to lobby for international funds to address an asserted “pandemic of HIV-AIDS.” Since at least the beginning of the century, UNAIDS has claimed hundreds of thousands of South Africans die annually from the amorphous “acquired immune deficiency syndrome,” said to be caused by a discrete retroviral pathogen labeled the “human immunodeficiency virus” by the U.S. and French governments in 1987.  


For the nation of 51.8 million (2011 census), SSA published its “Mortality and causes of death in South Africa, 2010: Findings from death notification.” It reported 18,325 deaths from “HIV disease,” up slightly from 2009’s total of 17,785, using the generous definition that labels old diseases like chronic diarrhea and tuberculosis as “HIV disease,” if the deceased was thought to have been reactive on a test for antibodies to the purported viral pathogen. That contrasts sharply with the latest UNAIDS claim that an estimated  270,000 South Africans died of “HIV disease” in 2011. [Page accessed April 14, 2013.] Doing the math: the actual death registrations for “HIV disease” were less than 7% of the UNAIDS claim.  

For the past decade (since 2003), UNAIDS has been asserting that something on the order of 200,000 to 420,000 deaths from “HIV-AIDS” occur each year in South Africa. [Preceding linked table shows UNAIDS data for 2003-2007.] A round number usually cited is 300,000, or sometimes, “a thousand a day,” while Statistics South Africa’s actual death counts from purported “HIV disease” have ranged in that time period from only about 10,000 to 18,000 yearly, including a range of 14,183 in 2006 to the 18,325 in 2010. The SSA numbers have always been about 95% less than the UNAIDS claim. [Google “deaths+AIDS+South+ Africa” to see the oft-repeated UNAIDS claim, usually just presented as fact, with no citation–even though UNAIDS is the source.]  


UNAIDS is an umbrella agency for various U.N. divisions and other organizations. UNAIDS is not a medical science research operation. UNAIDS does not engage in original epidemiological research. It “massages” numbers produced by the World Health Organization and others. UNAIDS is a public relations operation charged with “raising AIDS awareness” and promoting ever-more spending on “HIV-AIDS.” UNAIDS reports no separate, disaggregated figures for number of “HIV infections” and number of “AIDS disease cases”–which means there is no figure, not even a guess, for how many humans are actually believed to be ill from an elusive syndrome comprised of a long list of old diseases.   

In its new report, SSA lists the total number of deaths in South Africa from all causes (natural, plus murder, suicide, accidents, etc.) as 543,856 in 2010, down from 579,711 in 2009. SSA data reveal that deaths from all causes in South Africa peaked in 2006 at 613,108, and have fallen steadily in the years from 2006 to 2010. At the same time, SSA’s census data show that the country’s population increased to 51.8 million in 2011 (latest census) from 44.8 million in 2001–a 15% hike in population in a nation that is supposed to be ravaged by a killer “HIV-AIDS” pandemic. (For contrast, U.S. population increased by only 9.7% from 2000 to 2010.)  


These numbers are easy to track at the web site of SSA, a statistics agency that operates with Western standards, and which may be one of the few reliable African numbers-gathering entities among the 50 African nations. The exaggerations of UNAIDS have no basis in fact. Yet the international HIV-AIDS Industry, and journalists who act as unwitting conduits for UNAIDS propaganda, continue to spread the numbers, frequently without attribution to UNAIDS.  

UNAIDS also claims that 34 million are “living with AIDS” worldwide as of 2011, and two-thirds of those are in Sub Saharan Africa. [Pages accessed April 14, 2013.] If UNAIDS states “HIV deaths” in South Africa as 17-times greater than the official numbers from SSA, it is reasonable to ask what that says about the 34 million claim.  

The truth is that UNAIDS’ worldwide numbers are derived from poorly-fact-based data models that are extrapolations, of exaggerations, including poorly conducted surveys, using a tiny number of blood samples, many of them from Third World countries where sampling is conducted only at neo-natal clinics, subjected to assays for proteins, which can be expressed by scores of body conditions, not tests for actual pathogenic virions, real or imagined. Employing its always-hyphenated “HIV-AIDS” label, UNAIDS counts as “deaths caused by HIV” those who have died from a long list of old illnesses that can occur by themselves, with no help from a mystery retrovirus. In other words, the UNAIDS methodology for counting “HIV-AIDS” cases is as corrupt as the theory that a single sexually and blood transmitted retroviral pathogen could have caused an amorphous immune deficiency syndrome spuriously defined as a long list of old diseases.  

HARVARD “STUDY” USED UNAIDS EXAGGERATIONS TO TRASH THABO MBEKIThe UNAIDS claim of about 300,000 deaths from HIV each year in South Africa was the basis for a “study” released by the Harvard School of Public Health AIDS Initiative in November 2008, which asserted that, “More than 330,000 lives or approximately 2.2 million person years were lost [between 2000 and 2005] because a feasible and timely ARV [anti-retroviral] treatment program was not implemented in South Africa.” That junk science “study” was nothing more than a set of calculations, applied to spurious assumptions, that began with UNAIDS’ grossly inflated death claims. It was heralded with the Harvard “brand” November 25, 2008 on the front page of The New York Times. And it has been repeated widely. Disguised as an academic paper, it was a thinly veiled character assassination attack on then-South African President Thabo Mbeki. He was the only world leader to make a comprehensive study of the science claims for AIDS. He suggested that assertions about “AIDS in Africa” reflected racism, fueled by white Western medicine men hallucinating about black Africans and sex.  

Former South African President Thabo Mbeki


Millions of Africans have been psychologically terrorized with the belief their sexual practices have compromised their health, when it can be argued that the causes of poor health in Sub Saharan Africa are what they always were: pathogen-laden drinking water, malnutrition, old diseases like TB and Malaria, poor sanitation and hygiene in impoverished societies, and debilitating stress.  

The claim of a retrovirus spread sexually has led to millions being prescribed highly toxic, life-threatening chemotherapy, beginning with the notorious “AZT” and including other indiscriminate cell-killers and DNA chain terminators, euphemistically called “anti-retrovirals,” resulting in immune deficiency by doctors’ prescriptions. Symptoms of this iatrogenically induced disease include facial fat wasting, stomach distension, humped backs, chronic diarrhea, thinned limbs with protruding veins, and eventually liver dysfunction, renal failure, heart disease and dementia. Those are the same doctor-induced conditions that Americans see daily in the mostly urban gay communities of America.  


In effect, the heterosexual “AIDS epidemic” that never occurred in the white West was “off-shored” to the Third World, and to Africa in particular, where African men are told they need to be circumcised to stop the “spread” of “HIV”–while 90% of Western European white heterosexual males are uncircumcised, and have never “spread” the mysterious retrovirus to women.   

Perhaps the most telling thing about the assertion that “34 million are living with HIV-AIDS” is that it is almost the same figure UNAIDS has been touting in its propaganda for six years, since 2007, when it dropped its “living-with-HIV-AIDS” claim from 40 to about 33 million. That occurred right after the government of India reduced its estimate of “HIV-AIDS cases” by almost three-fifths, in June 2007, from 5.7 million to just 2.5 million, in a nation of 1.1 billion, a tiny two-tenths of one percent of its population. India had conducted its own study, and the results forced UNAIDS to down-size its exaggerations–but India’s numbers were also based on faulty assumption-laden mathematical models, not actual headcounts by medical doctors.  


“AIDS” has always been an amorphous malady-by-definition, a label ascribed to a broad spectrum of health problems related to three general factors: (1) acute and chronic exposure to old pathogens, (2) frequent ingestion of toxins, and (3) affliction with stress. All of which, together and separately, can weaken natural immunity in human hosts.  

That’s what “AIDS” was when “the perfect storm” of those factors caused the collapse of immune systems among gay men in urban America in the early 1980s. That’s what it remains, reflected in the reality that no cure or vaccine has been developed in the three decades since a new label, “HIV-AIDS,” was assigned to sets of old health problems. By government medical science bureaucrats.  


Director of the Washington Center for Politics & Journalism since 1989, and former press secretary for the Democratic National Committee (1983-87), Terry Michael has been a member of the Washington, DC gay community since 1975. He is an independent free-lance writer on health and “HIV-AIDS,” as well as a political analyst. His 8,000-word “Special Report on HIV-AIDS” is at his: web site.